Ideas and flip side

Few news today I read minutely and here I will focus 4 to 5 of those news.

News1 : Finance Minister of India is against of any protectionism and following his master’s agenda, ‘cashless economy’, he has instructed that he requires minimum 2,500 millions digital transaction in the calendar year 2017. And he will not spare if the figure comes down from his set target. He also stressed of distribution point of sales machine in railway ticket counters, ration shops and many more market places. Also, he stressed of using UPI of various banks, payment wallet even government’s payment app BHIM, also using of Aadhaar.

Foot note : As per government data there are 5,00,000 ration shops in India under public distribution system. And railway ticket counters in India is not less than thousands of thousand. But the target mandate is 2,500 millions. The valid question is security of digital payment transaction and net availability. Most of the net service provider’s net speed vary from some b/s to some k/s, and how many use broadband service? Server down is a common dialogue of BSNL, the government owned telecom company, the same story we witness in private net service provider. The reason they highlight is, traffic congestion. In any normal case of any government site is very slow, and people suffer if anything they want to submit online in those sites, most of the time it fails. So, until the transaction will not made the customer cannot receive goods or service from the counter. PoS is linked with net connection and if the net speed goes slow or server down story appears no transaction will happen. And it has big chance to implementation of transaction charges in near future through digital transaction. A new avenue of earning revenue from the people on the perspective of mandatory norms.

News2 : The Indian startups are passing tough time of second phase fund raising thus the impact is simply layoff 100 to 600 workforce. And some of them planning to wind up their business.

Foot note : Some months ago reading an article, there it was written that the difference of opportunity of availing venture fund in america’s silicon valley and in Indian soil. Here, in India a startup will not get second or third chance if fails in first attempt, but in America the chances are countless (I am not sure). Also there are lots of innovation scopes in american universities that is not possible in any Indian universities. Here the pressure is single window object oriented that is getting a good job completing the study. So, Modi’s startup slogan is like the sound of empty vessel. Government have created a fund of Rs.10,000 crore for providing seed capital to new startups but no fund is reserved to the old startups when they need fund raising to preserve the existing fund before burnt out.

GDP : Central Statistical Office (CSO) have published their latest report of expected GDP in the third quarter of the financial year 2016-17 @7.1% on the calculation of the basis to agricultural growth @6.5%, manufacturing growth @10% and banking-insurance growth at healthy level. The economists and experts are surprised to see the growth figure which have sketched the CSO during the demonetisation period from November 8.

 Foot note : Third quarter means October to December. The total number of days is 92. Demonetisation was declared on November 8 night. So from first day of October to November 8 is 39 days and November 9 to December 31 is 53 days. Agricultural resources the CSO defines as income from forestry, fishery and crops. After demonetisation the farmers cannot sell their crops and did not get the fair price as was expected before demonetisation. The other interesting observation is, the third quarter of 2015-16, the agricultural growth was 2.12% when there was no demonetisation order from the end of government. Most of the fishing harbour and its adjacent wholesale auction market were closed due to cash crunch. How the way CSO have calculated such fictitious figure, where 4 million farming labours have lost their jobs in that period due to huge cash crunch?

Bank consolidation : Reserve Bank of India is arguing to merge PSU banks to minimise the Non Performing Assets which were mostly created by Indian corporates as well as enhancing capital in a single pot instead of splitted small pots. 

Foot note : Yesterday the all India bank employees unions called a nation wide strike to recover the NPAs which were sucked by the Indian corporates. The logic of the young Deputy Governor of RBI was as such, the same products are selling the PSU banks in different bank’s banner in the same market this the overhead cost is fixed and the result is denting the profit of the banks. Due to demonetisation and NPA most of the bank’s third quarter result was poor and erosion of profit.

Sum up : News1 & News4 helps us to sum up the discussion that government is depending on technology and wanting to minimise the number of bank branches if consolidation can happen. Citi bank’s Asia Pacific head gave hints from Singapore that they will depend on technology and curtailing the number of branches. HSBC also following the same process, they outsized their branches in India to 26.

Today we can assume that within a decade there will be growth but there will no job available. Self drive automation alias simply robotics will perform all tasks. Bill Gates understood and arguing to impose tax on robots.

The ultimate nature of imperialism is foreseen, and it will destroy its own supremacy. Man will say the last word, not the machine.

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